Golden Globe Predictions

Hey, everyone! It's been a helluva long time since I blogged, and I have to admit, the break was pretty nice. Anyway, on to my post...

This year's Golden Globe nominations were announced this morning, and it was the Brokeback Mountain show all the way. Most of the nominations I agree with, but there seem to be a few glaring snubs, especially in the TV categories (no love for Arrested Development!).

I've made my predictions below for the major categories, including who I think should win and who I think actually will win. Sara and I have an annual contest between the two of us to pick the winners - I know, how nerdy are we? I usually win, but it's because I pick who I think will win and Sara always goes with her heart and picks who she wants to win.

Feel free to tell me your own predictions. You can find a full list of the nominees here.

BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Good Night, and Good Luck
A History of Violence
Match Point

Who should win - Brokeback Mountain / Who will win - Brokeback Mountain
This is the critics' favorite this year. It's already starting to sweep in the critics' awards. I think the only other movie that has a chance in this category is Violence, but it's a long shot.

BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Gwenyth Paltrow, Proof
Charlize Theron, North Country
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha

Who should win - Felicity Huffman / Who will win - Charlize Theron
Again, this year wasn't the year for leading women in movies. Most actresses blame the writing and lack of good roles (and I would have to agree with them), but nonetheless, someone still has to be nominated.

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

Who should win - Terrence Howard or Philip Seymour Hoffman / Who will win - Heath Ledger
...And again, this year has proven to be a great year for the men, altough audiences didn't flock to see these movies. Which is why I don't think Howard (who also did a great job in Crash) or Hoffman will win - they don't have the popularity that Ledger does from Mountain's contraversy.

BEST MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
The Producers
The Squid and the Whale
Walk the Line

Who should win - Walk the Line / Who will win - The Squid and the Whale
The biggest problem that I have with this category is that The 40 Year Old Virgin wasn't nominated, and I'm not joking. I mean, Mrs. Henderson Presents... what the hell is that? Anyway, I think Squid, the critical fav, will win out, although the Cash biopic should.

BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale
Sarah Jessica Parker, The Family Stone
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Who should win - Reese Witherspoon / Who will win - Reese Witherspoon
Ditto the other Best Actress category, except that here Witherspoon is the clear frontrunner. She should take home the Oscar, too.

BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Pierce Brosnan, The Matador
Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
Johnny Depp, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Nathan Lane, The Producers
Cillian Murphy, Breakfast on Pluto
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line

Who should win - Joaquin Phoenix / Who will win - Jaoquin Phoenix
Like Witherspoon in her category, I think he's the man to beat (with the Globes and on Oscar night). I do wish, though, that Steve Carell had been nominated for The 40 Year Old Virgin - he made that movie more than just a juvenile run-of-the-mill comedy; he made it a classic. I don't think he would've won, and I'm glad he was nominated for The Office, but it still would've been nice.

BEST DIRECTOR
Woodey Allen, Match Point
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Peter Jackson, King Kong
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Fernando Meirelles, The Constant Gardener
Steven Spielberg, Munich

Who should win - Ang Lee / Who will win - Ang Lee
Lee took home the Golden Lion award at this year's Venice Film Festival. After the debacle that was The Hulk, he chose to helm this smaller (pardon the pun) movie about gay cowboys that's taking the critics by storm. It'll take home several Globes and several Oscars, among other critics' awards.

BEST TELEVISION SERIES - DRAMA
Commander in Chief
Grey's Anatomy
Lost
Prison Break
Rome

Who should win - Lost / Who will win - Lost
Lost is by far the best show on television right now (although I think 24 and The Shield should've been nominated). It is loved by critics and audiences alike, so I think it'll ride the wave to a Globe win. If any of these shows pull an upset, it'll be Chief.

BEST ACTRESS - TV DRAMA
Patricia Arquette, Medium
Glenn Close, The Shield
Geena Davis, Commander in Chief
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
Polly Walker, Rome

Who should win - Glenn Close / Who will win - Geena Davis
Davis will win out of sheer popularity, although Arquette could pull an upset (as she did at this year's Emmys). Close should win for her outstanding work on The Shield - she brought her greatness to an already great show.

BEST ACTOR - TV DRAMA
Patrick Dempsey, Grey's Anatomy
Matthew Fox, Lost
Hugh Laurie, House
Wentworth Miller, Prison Break
Kiefer Sutherland, 24

Who should win - Kiefer Sutherland or Matthew Fox / Who will win - Hugh Laurie
Laurie's brooding Sherlock Holmesian doctor will take home the prize because of House's popularity. Just wait until the sixth season of The Sopranos - Gandolfini will slay this category next year.

BEST TELEVISION SERIES - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Desperate Housewives
Entourage
Everybody Hate Chris
My Name is Earl
Weeds

Who should win - Curb Your Enthusiasm / Who will win - Desperate Housewives
See! I told you there was no love for Arrested Development! Or even for The Office! What's the deal? Enthusiasm is by far the funniest show nominated. Larry David is a genius. I would settle for any of these shows winning over Housewives (it sucks this season), but I think the women of Wisteria Lane will come out on top.

BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Marcia Cross, Desperate Housewives
Teri Hatcher, Desperate Housewives
Felicity Huffman, Desperate Housewives
Eva Longoria, Desperate Housewives
Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds

Who should win - Felicity Huffman / Who will win - Felicity Huffman
Hmmm... I'm surprised the Housewives foursome was nominated again this year, due to lackluster episodes and dwindling ratings, but here you go. It might be nice if Parker won, but don't count on it.

BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Zach Braff, Scrubs
Steve Carell, The Office
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Jason Lee, My Name is Earl
Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men

Who should win - Steve Carell or Larry David / Who will win - Jason Lee
Tough call. (Where art thou, Jason Bateman?) All these shows are great, and all these guys are the reasons they're great. David's won before, so I think Carell's most deserving, but Lee will win because of Earl's popularity and newness (even though Sheen and Braff did some of their best work this past year). I'm just glad Matt LeBlanc wasn't nominated again for Joey.